A nearly-completed Aylesbury regeneration site has failed to deliver all the affordable and family housing that is required by its amended planning permission. Plot 18 will be just the third plot of the estate's regeneration to be completed since 1997 (after Site 1A and Site 7, delivered by L&Q housing association), with a fourth site, the First Development Site, also in its final stages.
Plot 18 has been built by Notting Hill Genesis (NHG) and will provide 122 residential units, a medical centre, a library and an early years facility. The plot's development entailed the demolition of 34 council and leasehold homes in 57-76 Northchurch and 300-313 Missenden.
Notting Hill Genesis (NHG) confirm the affordable and family housing shortfalls in a proposed Housing Delivery Strategy, submitted to Southwark Council for its approval in September 2023.
The Strategy reveals that less than half of the required affordable housing promised for Plot 18 has been built, saying that only 22.9% (measured by habitable room) have been provided, against a requirement of 50%. Referring to Plot 18 as Development Stage 2A, the Strategy says that it 'will provide 358 Habitable Rooms, of which 82 Habitable Rooms (22.9%) will be Affordable Housing' and that 'this does not meet the requirement to provide a minimum of 50% of Habitable Rooms as Affordable Housing' [^1].
The Strategy also says that no houses have been built, despite a requirement that 20% of the new homes should be in that form. It proposes that the delivery of these is deferred until the later stages of the regeneration.
Plot 18's lost affordable and social rented homes
NHG's outline planning permission requires that 50% of the housing should be affordable and that 75% of the affordable should be social rent. The percentages are calculated from the number of habitable rooms (living room, bedroom, kitchen). On this basis, Plot 18 should have 179 habitable rooms that are affordable and 134 of these should be social rent.
NHG’s acknowledge that there are only 82 affordable habitable rooms, all social rented, but still leaving shortfalls of 97 hb rms of affordable and 52 hb rms of social rented housing. In terms of dwellings, on a rough calculation, this is a loss of about 27 affordable homes, of which 15 would be social rent, if each dwelling averaged just over three habitable rooms [^2].
NHG - just 56 social rented homes
NHG's Strategy justifies Plot 18's affordable housing shortfalls on the grounds that another part of the regeneration, the First Development Site (FDS), has an 'overprovision' of affordable housing and that, taken together, the FDS and Plot 18 will have 60.9% affordable housing.
This justification though does not say that Southwark Council is providing most of the affordable housing on the FDS, not NHG. While NHG's Strategy notes that two thirds of the FDS passed into Southwark Council's ownership [^3], it neglects to add that this also means most of the 'overprovision' is coming from Southwark's Council House Building Programme
Southwark Council took over FDS 'A' and FDS 'B' in 2020, with great fanfare and is providing 581 council homes on these sites, at a cost to the council of over £200m. NHG retain FDS 'C', where most of the housing will be free market, with 190 private homes units, 75 shared ownership homes, but just 56 social rented homes [^4].
Family housing promises forgotten
NHG's also comes up short for houses on Plot 18. About a fifth of the new homes should be houses, which would be around 14 three-bed homes, whereas the number built is zero.
Houses are distinguished from other types of dwelling, such as flats, and are particularly valued as family homes. The now discarded Aylesbury Area Action Plan 2010 defines them as a 'self contained residential dwelling. Houses can be detached, semi detached or terraced' [^5]. The AAAP promised that nearly a quarter of the new homes would be houses, saying 'We will respond, for example, to the needs of families...........23% of new homes will be houses with access to gardens' [^6].
The AAAP 2010 notes that 'Increasing the proportion of homes suitable for families was a key concern which local residents raised during consultation' and 'Providing a high proportion of houses will enable more households to have their own front doors which open onto the street and will also help minimise common parts. This will increase street level activity and will reduce many of the problems associated with higher density living. It also reduces the management costs for residents' [^7].
Despite these well-attested benefits, the number of houses required in the regeneration is now 19.7% of total dwellings (by habitable rooms), according to the NHG Strategy, not the 23% given in the AAAP 2010. 19.7% amounts to 70.5 habitable rooms on Plot 18 (about 14 three-bed houses), but the NHG Strategy candidly states 'As shown in Figure 5 Development Stage 2A does not provide any ‘Houses’.
NHG justify supplying no houses on Plot 18 by referring to the s106 agreement between themselves and Southwark, which allows them to spread the 19.7% of houses across the whole development. They go on to say that the shortfall 'could be achieved through the increased provision of 'Houses' within future phases', without actually stating that this is what they will do [^8].
Maisonettes, Duplexes and bigger family homes all go missing...
The pattern of shortfalls is repeated for maisonettes/duplexes and larger 2-bed homes. The AAAP 2010 notes their role as family housing 'At a borough wide level there is a need for a mix of dwellings, particularly those capable of accommodating families. The proportion of maisonettes and houses will help meet this need' [^9].
NHG's Strategy reports that while 17% of dwellings should be maisonettes/duplexes across the whole development, there are none on Plot 18. The Strategy then goes on to propose 'the necessary amendments within future Development Stages (namely Development Stage 2B/C) to ensure that the Minimum Maisonettes / Duplexes Requirement is met'.
Similarly, half of Plot 18's two-bed homes should be for four persons, giving 26 new two-bed/four-person homes, but instead there only 4 two-bed/four-person homes - a shortfall of twenty-two. Again, NHG proposes making up the difference on the next Stage 2B/C, which would need to provide 205.4 two-bed/four-person homes [^10].
Will the affordable housing shortfall be made up?
NHG acknowledges that it has not provided enough affordable and social rented housing on Plot 18. NHG claims that it can do this under the terms of the s106 agreement with Southwark, covering the remainder of the Aylesbury regeneration.
NHG also claims that because more than 50% affordable housing has been provided on the FDS (by Southwark, as council housing) then NHG can deliver less affordable housing on Stage 2B/C (41.1% instead of 50%).
In the event NHG has maintained the level of affordable housing at 50% in its updated application for Phase 2B, part of Stage 2B/C. While this meets the outline planning permission requirement of 50% affordable housing, it does not make up the Plot 18 shortfall; NHG is depending on Southwark's 'over provision' on the FDS to do this.
Further, the Phase 2B application is a 'standalone' or 'drop-in' application, outside of the outline planning permission. If this 'standalone' application is approved, then there is a danger that the outline permission, which also covers Phases 3 and 4 of the regeneration, and includes the 50% affordable housing requirement, could be invalidated. This was a key issue in the High Court decision to quash NHG's attempt to change the wording of the outline permission.
So, while there may be 50% affordable housing on Phase 2B, keeping it at this level for future phases could depend upon new planning applications, with the outline permission effectively set aside [^11].
Will larger family housing shortfalls be made up?
As well as not providing enough affordable housing on Pot 18, NHG has also not provided enough larger family-type housing. Again, NHG says that it can do this under the terms of the s106 agreement and that the shortfall in the number of maisonettes/duplexes and two-bed/four person homes 'could' be made up in future phases.
But we can see from the updated Phase 2B application that this phase will have no houses either (though the number of maisonettes will be greater than that required by policy - 20% against 17%) [^12].
The amount of family-housing proposed for Phase 2B also fails to meet Southwark's policy requirements, on at least three measures;
- A minimum of 70% 2+ bed homes is required; only 64.5% is proposed.
- A minimum of 20% family homes with 3+ beds is required; only 15.94% is proposed.
- A minimum of 3% 5-bed homes is required; only 1.72% is proposed.
One measure is met - a minimum of 7% 4-bed homes is required and 7.66% is proposed[^13]
What we say
Although the NHG Strategy has been with Southwark Council for over a year, it has not yet been approved. This approval is needed before NHG can get any of the necessary further planning permissions, under their outline planning permission, to complete the Aylesbury's regeneration. In their Strategy, NHG proposes taking advantage of clauses in the legal s106 agreement to deliver the family housing at later stages of the development.
NHG also wants to reduce the amount of affordable housing it provides, because Southwark has 'overprovided' affordable housing on the FDS. It is obvious that if it does this, then Southwark Council will have effectively subsidised NHG's affordable housing contribution, through its £200m purchase of FDS 'A' and 'B'.
Southwark should also consider that;
- NHG's record of housing delivery is poor. It has held an outline planning permission since 2015, and has only completed the 122 homes on Plot 18 so far, of which only 22.9% are affordable.
- Southwark Council had to take over FDS 'A' and 'B' itself, at a cost of over £200m. NHG retains FDS 'C', which will provide just 56 social rent units, 75 shared-ownership and 190 private homes.
- NHG and Southwark Council both fell foul of a High Court ruling related to NHG's last Aylesbury planning application, for Phase 2B. This 'standalone' or 'drop-in' application was for a denser development than would have been allowed under the outline permission NHG already held. Notwithstanding this failure, NHG is persisting with the same 'standalone' application for Phase 2B.
- NHG's commitment to delivering the future phases of the Aylesbury regeneration is a vague reference to '2030 and beyond'[^14]. Applications for Stage 2B/C, Stage 3 and Stage 4 under their outline permission must be submitted by Aug 2033 [^15].
We think this leaves Southwark with several questions to answer;
- will it approve the NHG's housing delivery strategy and agree with them in deferring delivery of the affordable and family housing to future phases?
- will it allow NHG to take advantage of the council housing Southwark is providing on the FDS, to reducing its own affordable housing contribution, after underdelivering on Plot 18?
- in the light of NHG persisting with a 'standalone' application, is NHG willing and capable of delivering the Aylesbury regeneration as it has been promised?
Footnotes:
[^1] The Housing Delivery Strategy, 6 Sept 2023, 4.5 The Strategy can be found via Southwark Council's planning register using ref 23/AP/2603.
[^2] NHG's Strategy only gives the affordable housing figures as habitable rooms and percentages, not as units. The Aylesbury Now webpage for Plot 18 says that it has 23 social rented units; with 82 habitable rooms, this gives an average of 3.57 hb rms per dwelling; this average been used to calculate the rounded-up unit figures.
[^3] Housing Delivery Strategy 6 Sept 2023, 23/AP/2603, 2.18
[^4] Design and Access Statement, First Development Site Application, Design Addendum, s73 Amendments, 22/AP/1063. Figures taken from 2.1 FDS Summary Schedule, Proposed Amendments, for plots SO-3, SO-4, which make up FDS 'C'.
[^5] AAAP 2010 Glossary, pg 178
[^6] AAAP 2010 Foreword pg 3; The vision and plan objectives 1.6.4
[^7] AAAP 2010 3.5.3, 3.5.4
[^8] Housing Delivery Strategy 6 Sept 2023, 23/AP/2603, 4.7-4.10
[^9] AAAP 2010 3.5.1
[^10] Housing Delivery Strategy 6 Sept 2023, 23/AP/2603, 4.11-4.18
[^11] This is NHG's second attempt at a 'drop-in' application for Phase 2B, after the High Court judgement. See our blogpost 'What next after High Court overturns Aylesbury planning decision?'
[^12] Planning Application Design and Access Statement, May 2022, 1.1 Executive Summary 22/AP/2226 - find via https://planning.southwark.gov.uk/online-applications/applicationDetails.do?activeTab=documents&keyVal=RDU2YJKB00300
[^13] Planning Statement Addendum, Oct 2024, 6.35, 6.36, 22/AP/2226 - 6.56% x 3 bed, 7.66%x 4bed, and 1.72% x 5 bed. Find via https://planning.southwark.gov.uk/online-applications/applicationDetails.do?activeTab=documents&keyVal=RDU2YJKB00300
[^14] Aylesbury Phase 2 Update June 2024 Display Board 3 http://www.aylesburynow.london/web/uploads/files/news_254_0.pdf?nocache=4626
[^15] para 73 Aysen Dennis -v- London Borough of Southwark, Neutral Citation Number: [2024] EWHC 57 (Admin) AC-2023-LON-001410, 17 January 2024 https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/CO16632023RDENNIS-v-LBC_NHG-17-01-2024_final.pdf